The transition from COVID pandemic to endemic, gradual resolution of supply disruptions and labor shortages, and still accommodative financial conditions will support continued expansion into 2022 even as pandemic-era fiscal support wanes.”Ĭurrently, few (if any) investors foresee a risk of recession. IHS Markit’s Joel Prakken and Chris Varvares expect that Q4 growth will spike above 7%, “driven by a rebound in vehicle production and unexpected strength in exports and inventory investment. Taking the time to digest an event-filled few days, two critical data points gave the Morning Brief an opportunity to invoke Rumsfeld’s memorable line about trying to war game for the unexpected.Īfter a brief slowdown in the third quarter, Wall Street economists are getting bullish about the current quarter and beyond - provided inflation and the Fed’s plans for monetary policy don’t completely derail investors’ best laid plans. “After more than a 110% rally from the March 2020 lows, perhaps investors needed a reminder that stocks can’t go up forever and that while volatility might be frustrating, it is perfectly normal,” he added. “Omicron has put quite the wrinkle in the recent bull market, but stocks are still up more than 20% for the year, so it is good to put things in perspective,” noted Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial. economy is chugging along just fine, thank you very much.
Defense Secretary on the cusp of the Iraq War, occurred to me as I sifted through the detritus of my email inbox on Monday morning - filled as it was with reminders of a volatile week.įor those just catching up, the Omicron variant is menacing investors (though you couldn’t tell, judging by Monday’s price action), a suddenly inflation-centric Federal Reserve is spooking cryptocurrencies. The sage if not convoluted soundbite, uttered in 2002 by the recently deceased former U.S. But there are also unknown unknowns, the ones we don’t know we don’t know.” We also know there are known unknowns - that is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. “There are known knowns - there are things we know we know. Tuesday, DecemNever let a bull market lull you into complacency Get the Morning Brief sent directly to your inbox every Monday to Friday by 6:30 a.m. This article first appeared in the Morning Brief.